U.S. travel and tourism recovery projected to exceed pre-pandemic levels

Domestic travel and tourism spending is forecast to reach more than $1.1 trillion.

The World Travel & Tourism Council, which represents the global travel and tourism sector has announced its latest economic modeling projecting that U.S. travel and tourism could rebound strongly in 2022, reaching almost $2 trillion in U.S. GDP contribution and exceeding pre-pandemic levels by 6.2%.

News of the strong recovery follows steady gains in the sector during 2021 and signals the welcome comeback of one of the world’s most important economic drivers after almost two years of upheaval.

“Our latest forecast shows the recovery significantly picking up this year as infection rates subside and travelers continue benefiting from the protection offered by the vaccine and boosters,” says Julia Simpson, President and CEO of WTTC. “As travel restrictions ease and consumer confidence returns, we expect a welcome release of pent-up Travel and tourism demand. That, together with what we hope will be a strong consumer-led economic recovery, creates a positive outlook for the sector.”

Projections by WTTC and Oxford Economics show that if the vaccine and booster rollout will continue at pace, and restrictions to international travel continue to be eased around the world throughout the year, the sector’s contribution of nearly $2 trillion to the U.S. economy could outperform 2019 levels ($1.87 trillion) by more than 6%. Other findings include:

• U.S. domestic travel and tourism spending is forecast to reach more than $1.1 trillion for the year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by 11.3%
• International traveler spending in the U.S. could see growth of $113 billion, compared to 2020, reaching nearly $155 billion, slightly below (14%) 2019 levels
• Employment in the sector could also surpass pre-pandemic levels, reaching nearly 16.8 million jobs, above pre-pandemic levels by almost 200,000 jobs

“The good news is our outlook delivers a clear message: If the right conditions exist, the travel and tourism sector can rebound to deliver economic and employment benefits we have not seen since before the pandemic,” said Simpson. “We encourage global leaders to consider the economic and employment benefits of boosting consumer confidence by allowing fully vaccinated travelers to move freely.”

New research by ForwardKeys, the leading travel data and analytics company and WTTC’s knowledge partner, has revealed inbound bookings to the U.S. over the Easter period have increased by 212% compared to the same period last year. Similarly, the latest data shows international inbound bookings to U.S. destinations during the busy Easter period have surged 130%, compared to 2021 levels.

Robust U.S. travel bookings could continue through the summer, with a 58% year on year increase in U.S. travel bookings already this year. Summer inbound international bookings will be similarly strong, increasing 87% year on year.

In 2019 travel and tourism generated 10.4% of global GDP and more than 334 million jobs worldwide. To reach close to pre-pandemic levels this year, WTTC urges governments around the world to continue focusing on the vaccine and booster rollout – and allowing fully vaccinated travelers to move freely without the need for testing.

The global tourism body also urges governments to replace the patchwork of restrictions for international travel with digital solutions that allow travelers to prove their status in a fast, simple and secure way.