NRF anticipates holiday spending to surpass $1 trillion in 2025

Consumers plan to spend just over $840 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items.

The National Retail Federation is predicting retail sales in November and December will grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024 levels, translating to a total spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion. By comparison, last year’s holiday sales rose 4.3% over 2023 to reach $976.1 billion.

“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”

NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Matthews adds, “The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation. As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies.”

Consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual consumer survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics. The amount is the second-highest in the survey’s 23-year history and falls only 1.3% less than last year’s record of $901.99.

“Time and again, Americans prioritize spending on loved ones for holidays despite economic uncertainty,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen says. “With more consumers planning to seek out sale events this year, retailers are prepared to deliver on deals and value to ensure consumers have everything they need to make the holiday special.”

NRF’s survey asked 8,247 adult consumers about their holiday shopping plans. It was conducted Oct. 1-7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points. Nearly all U.S. adults (91%) plan to celebrate winter holidays. Out of the total, $627.93 will go to gifts for family and friends. The remaining $262.56 will be used on seasonal items like food or candy, decorations and greeting cards.

Early shopping remains popular, with 42% of shoppers planning to begin browsing and buying for the holiday season before November. The leading reasons for early shopping are to spread out their budget (54%) or to avoid the stress of last-minute shopping (41%). Even with the early start, the majority (60%) anticipate they will finish shopping in December.

Tariffs remain top of mind for most holiday shoppers, with 85% anticipating higher prices because of tariffs. Nearly two-thirds (63%) plan to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their holiday shopping, up from 59% last year.

“Despite consumers’ economic concerns, the winter holidays remain an important occasion to celebrate with loved ones,” Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist says. “This is particularly true for those families with children who are expected to increase their gift budgets by more than $30 on average.”

As with other years, consumers plan to shop across numerous destinations this holiday season. Online continues to be the top holiday shopping destination, with 55% planning to make purchases digitally. That is followed by grocery stores (46%), department stores (44%) and discount stores (42%).

According to the survey, the top gifts consumers would like to receive include gift cards (50%), clothing or accessories (46%), books and other media (27%), personal care or beauty items (23%) and electronics (22%).

Retailers are also hiring additional support to meet consumer demand this holiday season. NRF expects retailers to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, in line with a slower-paced labor market. By comparison, there were 442,000 seasonal hires in 2024.

A notable headwind this year is the federal government shutdown, the timing of which is particularly challenging just before the holiday season. Delays in federal spending will result in a loss of private-sector income, further eroding consumer demand. While many negative economic impacts are expected to be temporary, their magnitude will escalate the longer the shutdown lasts.