Retail sales rise in March despite consumer worries

NRF reports that more consumers are concerned about prices as tariffs rise.

Data released April 16 by the U.S. Census Bureau showed that retail sales grew in March even though consumers continued to worry about the impact of rising tariffs, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.

“Retail sales strengthened in March, supported by continued solid growth in income, lower energy costs and bigger-than-usual tax refunds that all helped support household budgets,” Kleinhenz said. “However, there is no question that the consumer is not feeling great given the confusion of policy announcements from Washington. On-again, off-again rising tariffs and resulting turmoil in the stock market and world economy are clearly impacting consumer concerns about higher prices and future consumer spending growth.”

A survey conducted for NRF in March found 46% of consumers were stocking up on appliances, clothing and other items out of fear that tariffs could bring higher prices.

The Census Bureau reported that overall retail sales in March rose 1.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 4.6% unadjusted year over year, compared with increases of just 0.2% month over month in February.

March’s core retail sales as defined by NRF were up 0.6% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.4% unadjusted year over year, and NRF said core sales were up 2.6% year over year on a three-month moving average. These results come as NRF is forecasting that core retail sales will grow between 2.7% and 3.7% this year compared with 2024.

In addition, the NRF Retail Monitor reported this month that core retail sales were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month in March and were up 5.07% unadjusted year over year. That compared with a decrease of 0.22% month over month and an increase of 4.11% year over year in February.

Both Census and NRF Retail Monitor results reflect consumer spending that came after President Donald Trump announced tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico in February but before he announced a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S. trading partners on April 2 along with sweeping reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries.